The purpose of this template is to document the Precautionary Approach framework components for Pacific Salmon that Science Branch is responsible for producing. This memo is not meant to provide an assessment of stock status. The template is set up so that:
| SMU | Fraser Pink Salmon |
| Limit Reference Point | (Sgen with CI range) |
| joint science-FAM advice | removal reference: e.g., Umsy; X% Umsy; (insert values with range) |
| other biological reference points to inform management reference points | values which may be useful for determining management reference points (e.g., Smsy, X%Smsy, percentile based values) |
| next year of re-evaluation | (insert year here) |
| recommended approach if points are NOT re-evaluated within timeframe | TBD |
| reccomended threshold to trigger a rebuilding plan | TBD (include measurement units & frequency) |
Suggest some mostly generic language that can be cut & pasted into each PA/FSP memo re: purpose of memo, what it is/is not. PA components that Science is directly responsible for, jointly responsible for, and provides support to Fisheries Management for.
If helpful, could (generically) include what some biological refpts are (e.g. 80% Smsy, Umsy, etc.) and why they may be considered / informative when determining management reference points
include terminology that we want to use for all PA/FSP memos:
Inferred Fraser pink salmon harvest control rule with estimated Limited Reference Point (SGEN; LRP), 80%SMSY, and UMSY (medians +/- 95% credible intervals).
Estimates of Fraser pink salmon spawner abundance, harvest and total returns over time
| Years | Method | CV |
|---|---|---|
| 1957-1985 | PSC mark-recapture (system specific) | 20% |
| 1987-1991 | DFO mark-recapture (system specific) | 20% |
| 1993-2001 | DFO mark-recapture (mainstem) | 20% |
| 2003-2007 | Test fishery | 50% |
| 2009-2011 | Mission post-season | 35% |
| 2013-2021 | Mission in-season | 35% |
short, general audience description of methods and how uncertainty was incorporated (or not). Put details that are required for scientific documentation in appendix
focus in this section is on results that determine the reference points that Science Branch is responsible / jointly responsible for and biological reference points that managers may want to consider when making decisions re: implementation of PA/FSP reference points
This will be provided at both SMU & CU level (when they are not a 1:1 relationship)
| median | lower.CI | upper.CI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% Smsy | 4.0835 | 2.9952 | 6.2703 |
| Sgen | 1.3530 | 0.7526 | 2.8344 |
| Umsy | 0.5906 | 0.4668 | 0.6848 |
| 25th percentile | 1.9233 | NA | NA |
| 50th percentile | 4.5600 | NA | NA |
things that may be helpful for managers as they determine management reference points. e.g., kobe plots, comparison of biological benchmarks to: historical data (spawners, harvest rates, etc.), harvest control rules, etc.), risk tables/plots/profiles, sensitivity analyses…
Kobe plot of estimated spawner abundance and exploitation rate relative to SMSY (x-axis) and UMSY (y-axis), respectively, over time
Estimated spawner abundance over time (+/- 50% and 95% credible intervals) relative to upper (80% SMSY) and lower (SGEN) Wild Salmon Policy benchmarks
Estimated exploitation rate over time (+/- 50% and 95% credible intervals) relative to the exploitation rate expected to maximize harvest over under equilibrium conditions (UMSY)
Yield, recruitment, and overfishing probability profiles. (a) Optimal yield profile showing the probability that a given spawner abundance is expected to achieve 70%, 80%, or 90% of maximum sustainable yield (MSY). (b) Optimal recruitment profile showing the probability that a given spawner abundance is expected to achieve 70%, 80%, or 90% of maximum sustainable recruitment (SMSR). (c) Overfishing profile, calculated as 1 – P(SY > X% of MSY) at S < SMSY , and 0 at S > SMSY , showing the probability that sustained yield (SY) is reduced to less than a percentage (70%, 80%, or 90%) of MSY given a fixed level of escapement. Historical spawning escapements are shown along x-axis in panel (c)
Are there things that Fisheries Management should consider or should know about the results in this memo when developing management benchmarks?
general things to include in this section:
specific things to include in this section:
Spawner-Recruitment relationship. Error bars and grey band are 95% credible intervals, thick black line is the expected relationship
Recruitment residuals over time (+/- 50% and 95% credible intervals)
Data collection, quality control, management, etc. that the analysis relied upon. Include dates (year) when data set used was received and/or last updated.
technical information that is not directly needed for management purposes, but provides additional information about the results, is necessary for documentation of the analysis and/or to allow for future reproducibility